Surprising strength in hiring and consumer spending along with signs that demand for autos and housing are stabilizing have some economists pointing to a third scenario that seemed improbable at the start of the year—an economic growth upturn.

The New York Times published a similar story under the headline “经济衰退? 一些经济学家看到了经济增长反弹的可能性.” 根据《Hga010皇冠软件下载》的文章:

After months of asking whether the Fed could pull off a soft landing in which the economy slows but does not plummet into a bruising recession, analysts are raising the possibility that it will not land at all — that growth will simply hold up.

在标题下 “Forget Hard or Soft Landing: Meet the Rolling 经济衰退,” 布隆伯格则持不同观点:

...一个行业遭受收缩, 然后另一个, 但整体经济从未衰退, 就业市场基本保持稳定.

Bloomberg cites the downturn in housing and the current spate of tech layoffs as proof points for a rolling recession. 

Much of the economic 新闻 supports the possibility that a recession can be avoided.

• 就业增长保持强劲. 美国.S. added 517,000 jobs in January, more than double what economists forecast.
• 失业率仍然很低. 比率降至3.1月份为4%，为1969年5月以来的最低水平.
• 劳动力市场吃紧. U.S. 雇主有11个.0 million open positions in December, well above the 6.在大流行之前的几年平均为500万例.  
• Despite a rash of  tech layoffs, there’s been no surge in initial claims for unemployment benefits. 四周平均值降至189,2月中旬为500人, 低于209,与22年同期相比减少了1万美元.
• 消费者继续消费. U.S. retail and food service sales for January topped $697.1000亿，上升了3个.比上个月低百分之零.
• 工厂活动有所回升. 制成品新订单增加了10美元.1000亿或1亿.8%至552美元.12月50亿美元. 在过去5个月中，订单量有4个月出现增长.
• 房地产市场正在复苏. Sales of new single-family homes hit a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 616,000 in December, 2.比11月份预估的60.2万人高出3%.

然而，并非所有的消息都是积极的.

• 新屋建设依然疲软. 1月份，房屋开工率下降.与去年12月相比下降了5%.
• 整体建设下降. 12月份的总经济活动下滑了0.比去年11月的水平低4%.
• 通货膨胀率居高不下. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 6.截至2022年1月的12个月里增长了4%.
• 企业正在与成本上升作斗争. 生产者价格指数(PPI)上升6.截至2013年1月的12个月，增长率为0%.
• And many business leaders have embraced a gloomy outlook. Ninety-three percent of respondents to The Conference Board’s Measure of CEO Confidence survey are preparing for a U.S. 经济衰退将持续12-18个月.

有这么多相互矛盾的指标, it’s no wonder economists can’t agree on the direction of the economy. 

世界大型企业联合会预测，美国经济将继续下滑.S. gross domestic product (GDP) to contract three consecutive quarters this year.  

The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) has GDP flat in Q1, 第二季度几乎难以察觉的下滑, 第三季度再次增长.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters has U.S. GDP declining in only one quarter this year, and even then by only 0.1%.

《皇冠HGA010官方下载》对美国民众的调查显示.S. economists has the probability of recession this year at 61%. The Journal forecasts a mild contraction in Q3 with growth resuming in Q4.

What’s hidden in the detail of the Journal’s survey is that one-fourth of the respondents don’t expect any decline in ’23. This includes economists at well-respected firms like Credit Suisse, 高盛, 萨克斯, 摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley), 全国制造商协会, 全国房地产经纪人协会, 北美信托银行, 和法国兴业银行.

This lack of consensus may be why The Washington Post published an opinion piece in late February with the headline “不要相信任何人对经济的看法. 即使是我.” 文章指出:

• Current economic data is confusing because it points in all directions. 
• The confusion is fertile ground for partisans who use the data to serve their own agendas.
• How one feels about the economy depends on one’s personal situation, i.e., good data is cold comfort to someone who lost their job or whose business is being strangled by inflation.

那么合作伙伴如何处理这些数据呢? 

• Given the tight labor market, a recession is still possible but less likely. 
• 通货膨胀率居高不下, so the Fed will keep raising interest rates.
• The Fed’s actions will have the greatest impact on rate-sensitive sectors of the economy. 建筑业将会萎缩. 房产所有者将难以偿还债务. 贷款违约将升级. 
• The drop in 劳动力 participation and lack of a coherent immigration policy will prolong worker shortages. 
• 除非出现“黑天鹅”事件.S. 休斯顿经济今年将继续增长.
   

要继续阅读，请下载此报告.

Note: The geographic area referred to in this publication as “Houston,” "Houston Area” and “Metro Houston” is the nine-county Census designated metropolitan statistical area of Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX. 这九个县是:奥斯汀, Brazoria, 钱伯斯, 本德堡, 加尔维斯顿, 哈里斯, 自由, 蒙哥马利和沃勒.