Gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 2.4 percent annual rate in Q2/23 adjusted for inflation, well above the 2.0 percent that many economists had expected.

Growth was driven by increases in consumer spending (+1.6%)，商业投资(+ 4%).9 percent), and government outlays (+2.6%). Drops in exports and new home 建设 offset these gains, or growth would have been stronger.

美国.S. 6月份增加了20.9万个就业岗位. 尽管比最近几个月要弱, the gain aligns with the monthly average (189,000) in the years between the Great 经济衰退 and the Covid 经济衰退.

Future gains will depend on increases in the 劳动力 participation rate (LFPR) and economic growth. LFPR为62.6月为6，较6月的61有所改善.去年6月为5%，但低于63%.在大流行之前是3%.

失业率为3%.6月6日. 低于5美元.0表示劳动力市场吃紧. 它追踪了4.0 percent or lower for 19 consecutive months. 

有9个.8 million job openings in 五月, down from 11.4 million 五月 ’22 but well above the 6.4 million monthly average prior to the pandemic. These are jobs for which work is available, 可以在30天内开始吗, and the employer is active recruiting for the position. 

The tight labor market has boosted wages, offsetting losses in purchasing power due to inflation. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased 4.根据美国的数据，这一比例为4%.S. 劳工统计局(BLS). Inflation, as measured by changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), was 3.0 percent in the 12 months ending June ’23.

美国.S. Federal Reserve may achieve its soft-landing for the 经济, i.e., reducing inflation without spiking unemployment. Employers remain reluctant to cut staff fearing they won’t be able to rehire them when demand picks back up. Forty-two percent of respondents to a National Association for Independent Business (NFIB) survey reported they had job openings they could not fill. The difficulty in filling open positions is most acute in the manufacturing, 建设, 交通运输部门. 

更多的经济学家认为，美国经济将继续增长.S. 完全避免经济衰退. Seventy-one percent of respondents to a National Association of Business Economics (NABE) survey rated the probability of a recession over the next 12 months at 50 percent or less. That’s a dramatic improve-ment over the last four surveys.

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Note: The geographic area referred to in this publication as “Houston,” "Houston Area” and “Metro Houston” is the nine-county Census designated metropolitan statistical area of Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX. 这九个县是:奥斯汀, Brazoria, 钱伯斯, 本德堡, 加尔维斯顿, 哈里斯, 自由, 蒙哥马利和沃勒.